Let us start with the facts. England have one of the best squads at this World Cup. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden. Thomas Tuchel in the dugout. On paper this is a team that should be competing to win the thing. This is not blind pessimism. This is just paying attention to history.
England's World Cup record since 1990 is a story of nearly. Semi finals in 1990. Out in the round of 16 in 1998. Quarter finals in 2002. Out in the group stage in 2014. Quarter finals in 2018. Quarter finals in 2022. They lost the Euro 2020 final on penalties at home. They lost the Euro 2024 final despite barely playing well for a single game in the tournament. Every time England get close to something the oxygen seems to disappear from the room.
The pattern is real and it is not bad luck. It is something deeper. England teams tend to freeze in the knockout rounds when the margin for error disappears. The weight of sixty years of hurt sits on those shoulders from the moment the tournament starts and it does not lift. Penalty shootouts turn sensible footballers into people who look like they have never kicked a ball before.
Tuchel is a different kind of manager to Southgate. More aggressive, more tactically flexible, more willing to change things when they are not working. That might make a difference. The fact the tournament is in North America and there will be a proper travelling English fanbase rather than the suffocating home pressure of a Wembley final might also help.
England are in Group L with Croatia, Ghana and Panama. They should win that group without breaking a sweat. Then the real tournament begins and the same questions that have haunted every England team for thirty years will surface again.
Maybe this is the year they prove everyone wrong. Genuinely. The squad has the quality. Tuchel has the credentials. But if you are asking for a prediction based on the evidence available then England will find a way to make it harder than it needs to be and go out just before the final.
Hope to be wrong. Always do.
Let me know your thoughts.